Bernstein sees Bitcoin recovering to $150.000 despite 54% decline

Bitcoin has taken a significant hit since its peak of around $125.000 in October 2025. The current price of approximately $63.210 marks a decline of about 54% from that high. While this may seem substantial, Bernstein, a leading Wall Street research firm and broker, says investors should keep this in perspective.

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Historical declines much more severe

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani points out that the current market conditions are not unusual for a crypto market in a particular phase of its cycle. In previous peaks and corrections, investors have regularly faced much more drastic losses.

The analyst notes that Bitcoin has experienced declines of 75% to 90% in earlier cycles. This means the current 54% drop is relatively far less severe than what the market has endured before. Bernstein uses this historical context to emphasise that the present correction still falls within normal parameters.

Bernstein maintains strong year-end target

Despite the current headwinds, Bernstein is sticking to its target of $150.000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year. This suggests the firm remains optimistic about a further recovery for the largest cryptocurrency.

In the coming weeks and months, the research house will closely monitor capital flows into Bitcoin. Bernstein refers to “signs of life” in these flows as a potential indication that the market is emerging from its current phase. An increase in institutional capital and positive money flows could signal a turning point towards recovery.

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