Bitcoin at $1 million is unattainable until 2030

Bitcoin’s fairy-tale target of one million dollars per coin by 2030 is mathematically unattainable, according to research lead Markus Thielen of 10x Research. The sums simply do not add up, he says in an interview with Cointelegraph.

In short:

• Thielen argues that Bitcoin would need $15 trillion in new capital to reach $1 million per coin
• This would be roughly a quarter of the total value of the US stock market
• Prominent figures such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have already made the million-dollar prediction

Unattainable capital requirements

To bring Bitcoin to that astronomical price, the coin would need to attract $15 trillion in new money. By comparison, over the past 15 years, $1 trillion has flowed into Bitcoin, which has reached its current market capitalisation of approximately $1.28 trillion. “It requires trillions,” Thielen said. “It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to really push the price materially higher.”

The required capital inflow would be roughly 25% of the total value of the US stock market, and all of this within four years. “That is not realistic,” Thielen said. Bitcoin is currently trading around $62.981, up 0.5% in 24 hours.

Investor psychology hinders growth

Thielen also points to a psychological problem: as the Bitcoin price rises, retail investors become less interested. Many people would rather own a whole Bitcoin than a fraction. “People do not want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin,” Thielen said. “You do not like buying a piece of a painting.”

This means that by the time Bitcoin becomes much more expensive, retail sentiment actually weakens. Thielen also warns that investors should not expect Bitcoin to quickly return to its previous all-time high of $126.000. “Usually that takes some time. If we return to, say, $100.000, that would already be a great, great success,” he said.

Prominent predictions do more harm than good

The million-dollar target has been promoted by well-known industry-leading figures such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argues that such bold predictions mainly serve to attract media attention.

“Round numbers, and the higher the number, the more often it is quoted by the press,” Thielen said. According to him, such optimistic targets do more harm than good for retail investors. “These positive price targets hurt retail investors because they think: okay, if this is only half right, I am going to make a lot of money.”

Thielen himself told Cointelegraph that he does not want to say that Bitcoin will never reach $1 million, but adds: “A million is really a high number. It would require a major credit crisis or a collapse of everything.”