Bitcoin demand grows slightly, but derivatives dominate the market

Demand for Bitcoin is picking up slightly, but the market is currently being driven mainly by the futures market. Analyst Darkfost warns that a rally not supported by the spot market stands little chance of a sustainable continuation. The situation resembles that of May, when Bitcoin rose to $82.000.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Total demand growth for Bitcoin currently stands at 25,000 BTC over the past 30 days, a modest recovery.
• The current market movement is driven by futures, not by the spot market.
• Only rallies carried by both spot and futures have historically proven to hold up.

Futures dominate the market

Data from CryptoQuant shows that demand growth for Bitcoin has turned positive in recent weeks. Over a 30-day period, total demand growth has reached 25,000 BTC. That sounds hopeful, but context is important: the growth comes almost entirely from the derivatives market.

Analyst Darkfost points out that the market is increasingly being driven by derivatives. That is a pattern he previously saw in May, when Bitcoin climbed to $82.000. That rise did not hold for long either. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $65K, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours.

Spot market must step in for a sustainable rally

Darkfost argues that not only the size of the demand matters, but also its origin. Historically, only rallies in which both the spot market and the futures market grow simultaneously have proven to be truly sustainable. In the current situation, the spot market is missing as a driving force.

If demand from the spot market does not pick up quickly, the analyst expects any price increase to be short-lived. The chart shows that periods in which only futures grow are more often accompanied by a rapid market reversal. The question, therefore, is whether genuine buyers will also enter the spot market, or whether the market is running purely on speculative positions.