Bitcoin long-term holders dominate selling pressure on exchanges

Onchain data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders of Bitcoin are currently the dominant force behind selling pressure on exchanges. More than 65% of all coins flowing to exchanges come from this group, which is selling at a loss. Historically, this pattern is characteristic of bear market phases, where this group eventually becomes exhausted before the market can reverse.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

What the data shows

Glassnode publishes a metric called the Relative LTH/STH Realized Profit and Loss to Exchanges. It indicates what proportion of coins flowing to exchanges realise a profit or loss, and which group of investors is responsible. At present, the reading stands at over 65% for long-term holders cashing out losing positions. This is a level previously seen in periods when the market was under structural pressure.

The 30-day moving average that Glassnode uses to present the data makes it clear that this selling pressure has persisted for some time. Short-term holders play a much smaller role in current exchange inflows by comparison.

When will the tide turn?

According to Glassnode, the dominance of long-term holders on the sell side is decisive for the direction of the market. As long as their share of loss-making exchange inflows does not begin to shrink, the structural pressure from buyers at the top of the previous cycle remains the main factor in market dynamics.

Historically, the moment when this share declines is a sign that the selling wave from this group is becoming exhausted. That is usually a precondition for a more sustainable recovery. For now, however, the data suggests that point has not yet been reached, and that the market is in a phase resembling previous bear market bottoms where patience was required from buyers.