Bitcoin long-term holders realise 13% loss in June

Long-term holders of Bitcoin are beginning to realise losses. This is shown by the LTH SOPR, an on-chain indicator that measures whether long-term holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. The monthly average value is falling sharply, pointing to a possible capitulation phase, although for now it remains limited in scope.

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SOPR dips into negative territory

The Bitcoin price currently stands at $60K, a rise of 1.2% in the last 24 hours. Yet on-chain data present a worrying picture for long-term holders. The LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss on coins spent by holders who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. A value below 1 means that this group is realising an average loss when selling.

The monthly average SOPR drops from 1.03 at the start of June to 0.87 now. That means long-term holders have been realising an average loss of 13% over the past 30 days. The price drops below $60.000 in particular have encouraged some of these holders to sell anyway, despite the losses.

Annual average falls but remains positive

The annual average of the LTH SOPR also shows a downward trend. Over 2026, this declines from 2.06 at the beginning of the year to 1.46 now. Although this value is still above 1 and therefore positive, the trend clearly indicates that the realised profits of long-term holders are decreasing sharply.

Analyst Darkfost states that this dynamic may further reduce selling pressure from long-term holders. This group sometimes holds large amounts of Bitcoin that were purchased years ago. As the SOPR declines further, the incentive to sell diminishes because selling becomes increasingly loss-making.

Historically, such a capitulation phase coincides with the end of bear markets. Darkfost warns, however, that this is a prolonged process. Such a phase can last several months before the market actually forms a bottom. It is therefore not a signal for an immediate reversal, but rather an indicator that the market is going through a maturation process.