Bitcoin price still lacks new capital for real bull market

The Bitcoin price is trading around $64K today, an increase of 2.2% in the past 24 hours. Yet there is reason to temper the euphoria: according to analyst joao_wedson, hardly any fresh capital has flowed into the market, meaning a full-fledged bull market remains out of reach for now.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Realized Cap Impulse points to a lack of inflow

The chart of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse, from Alphractal, shows that the indicator currently stands at just 0.23. This figure indicates the extent to which new money is entering the market. By comparison, during previous bull markets this value shot well above 1, peaking at nearly 2.92 around 2021. The current level is significantly lower than what is typical for a healthy upward market phase.

Joao_wedson states that many people overestimate the speed of a potential rally. New investors need time to regain confidence and truly return to the market. That conviction is not built overnight, especially after the turbulent period Bitcoin has been through.

Fresh capital expected towards the end of 2026

According to the analyst, stronger inflows of new capital are likely only to become visible towards the end of this year. This aligns with a pattern often seen after major corrections: Bitcoin first builds a bottom before attracting the broader crowd again.

That does not mean the market is stagnant. The recent price increase shows that there is movement, but it appears to be driven by existing holders rather than newcomers. Anyone hoping for a quick repeat of previous bull markets would do well to keep an eye on the Realized Cap Impulse as a measure of genuine market growth. As long as that indicator stays low, patience is the key word for Bitcoin.