Bitcoin price threatens worst June since 2022

The Bitcoin price is currently at $63.700. a rise of 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Yet the outlook for June is far from rosy: if the month ends this way, it will be the worst June performance for Bitcoin since 2022. That was also the last bear market year. Historical data also paints a clear picture of what investors can expect in the coming months.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Summer known for low volatility

Looking at the monthly returns of Bitcoin over the past few years reveals a recurring pattern. July, August and September are typically quiet months for the crypto market. Historically, lower liquidity in the summer tends to prevent large price movements. On average, July still delivers a modest gain of 7.60%, but August and September are traditionally negative months with an average of +1.12% and -3.08% respectively.

The absence of major institutional players during the summer period plays a role here. Less trading volume often means fewer spectacular moves, both up and down. For investors hoping for a quick recovery after a difficult June, the historical picture is therefore not very encouraging in the short term.

October as a possible turning point in the four-year cycle

Things become more interesting towards the fourth quarter. October shows an average return of no less than +19.92% over the years, followed by November with an average of +41.12%. Crypto analyst Daan shares a similar expectation:

Notably, according to the four-year Bitcoin cycle, October is also the moment when a potential bottom in a bear market is expected. If that pattern repeats, the current correction phase could continue for several more months before a new recovery begins. It was previously reported that Bitcoin ETFs are already under pressure, with outflows of $214 million. Whether the market actually puts in a bottom in October remains uncertain, but the historical figures at least provide a guideline for investors keeping an eye on the longer term.