Bitcoin rises, but demand lags behind price recovery

Bitcoin is trading around $86.500, a rise of 1.4% over the past 24 hours. Yet underlying demand is not yet showing a convincing recovery. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the spot market remains negative, while futures demand has fallen slightly but is still positive. The signals are mixed, even though total demand improved noticeably in a short time.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Spot market demand stands at -180,000 BTC, while futures demand remains positive at +54,000 BTC.
• Total average demand improved from -188,000 to -126,000 BTC in a few days.
• The Coinbase Premium Index is showing positive signals, but these are so far short-lived.

Spot market remains negative, futures hold steady

Analyst Darkfost argues that demand for Bitcoin is struggling to recover on a sustainable basis, despite the higher price. Spot market demand currently stands at -180,000 BTC over a thirty-day period, indicating that on balance more Bitcoin is leaving the market than entering it via the spot market.

Futures demand has fallen slightly but remains positive at +54,000 BTC. This means that demand via derivatives is providing some support to the market, while direct buying pressure on the spot market is absent. Bitcoin had earlier accelerated through a zone of short liquidations above $85.000, which gave the price a temporary push upwards.

There is, however, a notable improvement visible in the short term. Total average demand went from -188,000 to -126,000 BTC in just a few days, which represents an improvement of more than 60,000 BTC. Whether this is the beginning of a broader recovery cannot yet be said based on the current data.

Institutional selling pressure is easing

On the institutional front, there are cautiously positive signals. Darkfost indicates that selling pressure has fallen considerably, despite a difficult geopolitical and economic climate. The Coinbase Premium Index, weighted by trading volume, is showing positive readings.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges. A positive value usually points to buying activity from the US market, which is often seen as an indication of institutional interest. According to Coinbase, the positive readings are so far short-lived in nature, meaning that there is not yet any sustained institutional demand.

Bitcoin ETFs had earlier attracted nearly a billion dollars in a single day, but even that has so far failed to structurally restore spot market demand. The price is moving around the key levels that analysts have indicated for the coming months. Whether demand recovers further depends, according to Darkfost, strongly on whether the positive signals of recent days persist.