Bitcoin unrealised gains fall to 65.8%

An interesting signal from the on-chain data: the percentage of unrealised profit in Bitcoin is sliding further away from the historical average. While the market normally fluctuates around 81%, the figure now stands at 65.8%. That means 34.2% of all Bitcoin being held is currently at a loss, something that historically can be a sign of mounting pressure on the market.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Profit still dominates, but the margin is shrinking

Analyst Darkfost shares on X a chart from CryptoQuant showing the percentage of unrealised profit and loss for Bitcoin over time. Unlike the classic chart that looks at the share of supply in profit or loss, this chart focuses on the ratio: what percentage of profit or loss, on average, exists across the entire market.

At present, the percentage of unrealised profit stands at 65.8%, while the historical average (the mean) is around 81%. The market is still supported by more profit than loss, but the gap with the long-term average is widening. According to Darkfost, the figures show that profits are steadily declining.

Historical bear markets as a reference point

What makes this signal especially interesting is the historical pattern. In previous bear markets, the market always reached a point where unrealised losses exceeded the profits being held. That turning point typically serves as an indication of a trough in the market, when pessimism takes over.

Whether the current cycle will also reach that threshold remains unclear. Darkfost leaves the question open: will this pattern repeat itself, or is this the cycle that proves to be the exception? With a difference of more than 15 percentage points from the average, the situation is certainly worth keeping a close eye on. The coming weeks will show whether the decline in unrealised profit stabilises or continues further.