CryptoQuant founder: Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3 to 5x returns

Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, expects the current Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver a return of 3 to 5x rather than an explosive rise of more than 10x. According to him, the emergence of institutional investors is structurally changing market dynamics, flattening both the peaks and the troughs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86.500, up 1.4% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects a Bitcoin return of 3 to 5x in the current cycle, not a parabolic rally of 10x+.
• Growing institutional participation dampens both extreme peaks and severe declines.
• On-chain indicators such as the MVRV ratio and the PnL Index support his analysis.

Institutional growth dampens extreme swings

Ki Young Ju explains that earlier Bitcoin cycles were driven by speculative retail money in a relatively small market. That led to explosive price increases, but also to 80% crashes. Now that the market is much larger and institutional players account for an ever-growing share of holdings, both extremes are being flattened.

According to him, there is a clear trade-off: the same forces that limit a further explosive rise also mean that any downturn will be less severe. That makes Bitcoin more attractive to long-term investors and less suitable as a speculative instrument for short-term capital.

On-chain data points to a shift in market structure

Ki Young Ju points to several on-chain indicators that support his expectation. For instance, the MVRV ratio has never fallen below 1 in this cycle, meaning that holders as a group have never suffered a loss on their average purchase price. In earlier cycles, that was the case during dips.

Furthermore, the so-called realised cap, a measure of new capital inflows, is rising; futures whales’ positions rose sharply around the bottom of the cycle; and early Bitcoin holders have stopped selling. According to him, the 365-day moving average of CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, which tracks the average profitability of all holders, now also shows a clear turning point.

Based on earlier analyses around the $86.000 level, the debate about Bitcoin’s next direction has been going on for some time. Ki Young Ju now adds a broader market structure analysis that goes beyond price levels alone. Whether his expectation of a more moderate but more stable pattern proves correct will have to be demonstrated by the rest of the cycle.