Galaxy: Bitcoin bottom possibly around $40.000 to $46.000 in 2026

Bitcoin is currently at $63.880. but according to a new report from Galaxy Research, the bottom of the current cycle is far from reached. The research firm analyses on-chain and market data and compares the current situation with previous four-year Bitcoin cycles. The conclusion is striking: only 4 of the 13 historical bottom indicators have been activated so far.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Historical cycles as a guide

Galaxy Research looks back at four Bitcoin cycles to understand the pattern. In the cycle from 2012 to 2015, Bitcoin peaked at $1.135 in December 2013, after which the price fell to $176 in January 2015, a correction of 85%. The cycle from 2015 to 2018 saw a peak of $19.641 in December 2017, followed by a bottom of $3.185 in December 2018, a decline of 84%. The most recent completed cycle, from 2018 to 2022, peaked at $67.542 in November 2021 and reached a bottom of $15.758 in November 2022, representing a decline of 77%.

In the current cycle, which started from that bottom of $15.758 in November 2022, Bitcoin reached its provisional peak of $124.824 in October 2025. Since then, the price has already fallen by 51%, but Galaxy states that this is not enough to speak of a real bottom. The average time between peak and bottom in previous cycles is around 12 to 13 months, while the current downturn has only been underway for 8 months.

Base case points to $40.000 to $46.000

Based on cycle timing and on-chain indicators, Galaxy Research estimates the most likely bottom in a range of $40.000 to $46.000. expected sometime in the second half of 2026. That would amount to a total correction of 63% to 68% from the peak of $124.824, In a more negative scenario, involving deeper market capitulation, Bitcoin could even drop to a level between $30.000 and $37.000,

The report is striking given the recent technical situation around $65.000 and the persistent pressure from Bitcoin ETF outflows in recent days. For those looking to buy Bitcoin, Galaxy’s analysis offers an interesting perspective on possible entry points in the coming months.