Galaxy Research lowers chance of CLARITY Act in 2026 to 60%

The chance that the US CLARITY Act will be passed this year is falling from 75% to 60%, according to Galaxy Research. Analyst Alex Thorn points mainly to a practical problem: the Senate simply has too few usable days left to get the bill through.

From 55% to 75%, and now back to 60%

Thorn explains in his research note how his estimate has fluctuated over the past weeks. On 14 May he estimated the chance at 55%, just before the hearing in the Senate Banking Committee. On 22 May he raised that estimate to 75%, after the bill passed the committee with bipartisan support by a vote of 15 to 9. Since then, the bill has been on the Senate Legislative Calendar, officially since 1 June.

Now Thorn is pulling that estimate back to 60%. Not because there are major substantive problems with the bill itself, but because the Senate schedule is getting increasingly crowded. Next week is expected to be largely dominated by FISA-related issues, after a vote on reauthorisation of that law failed. That eats up precious time that could otherwise go to crypto legislation.

Unresolved issues slow down the process

In addition to the time problem, there are also a number of substantive points that have not yet been worked out. Thorn specifically mentions the ethics rules for lawmakers and provisions regarding illicit financing as areas where there is no agreement yet. As long as those issues remain unresolved, uncertainty grows about a successful completion within this calendar year.

The CLARITY Act is an important bill for the crypto sector, because it is meant to provide clarity on which digital assets are considered commodities and which are considered securities. The bill has broad support from both Republicans and Democrats, which is normally a positive signal. But a busy Senate schedule can delay even broadly supported legislation, and that is precisely the risk Thorn now sees.