Galaxy Research lowers probability of CLARITY Act in 2026 to 50%

Galaxy Research has lowered the probability that the CLARITY Act will become law this year from 60% to 50%. The reason is not so much the content of the bill, but the increasingly tight Senate agenda. That is according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research.

Time pressure from the approaching recess

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on 14 May and has been on the Senate calendar since 1 June, but no vote has been scheduled yet and there is still no combined text from the Banking and Agriculture committees. That is a problem, because the bill needs 60 votes to proceed through the floor debate procedure.

The summer recess begins in late July, meaning the available time is shrinking rapidly. Thorn states that Senate Majority Leader Thune must announce a date by early July at the latest, possibly as early as the recess around 4 July, so that the vote itself can still take place before the August recess. If that does not happen, the timeline shifts to September.

Competition from other dossiers in the Senate

September is not an attractive option, because then the political dynamics surrounding the midterm elections come into play. Controversial votes are difficult to schedule during that period, as Thorn has been warning for some time.

Moreover, several major dossiers are competing for the limited time on the Senate floor. The SAVE Act, a stalemate over a housing subsidy bill, the reauthorisation of FISA Section 702, and the budget debate for fiscal year 2027 are all in the queue. In addition, substantive issues remain unresolved, such as ethical questions surrounding the bill and the protections for developers. All these factors together make the chance of timely legislation in 2026 exactly fifty-fifty.