Glassnode founder: Bitcoin bottom lies between $46.000 and $54.000

Glassnode co-founder Rafael states that Bitcoin is currently in a historical valuation zone typically associated with market bottoms. Based on on-chain models, the most likely bottom zone lies between $46.000 and $54.000, The Bitcoin price currently sits at $62K, meaning a further drop towards that zone is still possible.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Bottom zone based on CVDD and Realized Price

Rafael bases his analysis on two important on-chain valuation models: the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed) and the Realized Price. The CVDD currently stands at $46.2K and is considered the most accurate anchor point, as historical Bitcoin bottoms have repeatedly fallen within the 1.05 to 1.18 range of this model. Higher valuation lines are more often broken, while the CVDD actually serves as a floor.

In an extreme scenario involving capitulation, Rafael sees a deeper support zone between $35.000 and $40.000, He does explicitly point out that this is not a prediction. Bitcoin bottoms cannot be determined with certainty in advance. The analyst also indicates that drawdowns in Bitcoin have become increasingly shallower over the years, which reduces the likelihood of an extreme decline. The Bitcoin price previously approached critical levels around $60.000, increasing the relevance of this analysis.

Recovery zone and what this means for investors

In addition to the bottom zone, Rafael also indicates where the first meaningful recovery can be expected. According to him, that zone lies between $75.000 and $79.000, That is a level also mentioned by other analysts as potential resistance in the event of a recovery. As such, another analyst also sees opportunities towards $75.000 in a recovery from current levels.

The crypto market is currently bouncing back after a severe correction, with Bitcoin climbing towards $62.000, Whether the market has actually put in a bottom or whether a test of the $46.000 to $54.000 zone is still to come, remains uncertain. Rafael emphasises that his analysis provides a framework, not a guarantee.