Is Bitcoin Really Broken or Just Waiting?

While gold rose 67% last year, Bitcoin remained virtually flat. Many investors are now concluding that Bitcoin is broken. But analyst Lawrence Lepard has seen this scenario before and thinks we may be jumping to conclusions.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

The 2020 gold pattern may be repeating itself now

Lepard points to an interesting historical pattern. In 2020, he saw gold first rise sharply, from $1.300 to $2.000. Bitcoin remained quiet during that same period. But then something unexpected happened: in October 2020, “everyone suddenly woke up” and realised that Bitcoin is actually digital gold.

What followed was an explosion. Bitcoin climbed from $10.000 to $50.000 in about seven to eight months. Lepard now questions this pattern: perhaps Bitcoin is not broken, but merely one step behind.

Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows with force

The core of Lepard’s reasoning is simple but interesting: gold reacts faster to certain market conditions, but when Bitcoin finally starts moving, it does so much harder and faster. Gold has never quintupled in seven months, whereas Bitcoin has done exactly that.

“Sometimes Bitcoin lags behind,” says Lepard, “but that lag is often followed by massive outperformance.” It is a pattern Lepard has repeatedly observed in the crypto world.

Of course, one historical precedent is no guarantee. Markets are complex and patterns can break. But it reframes the question many investors are currently struggling with: is Bitcoin truly broken, or is it simply waiting for the moment it wakes up? With Bitcoin currently around $66K, this question remains more relevant than ever.