Long-term Bitcoin Holders Sell Less Than Ever

Long-term holders of Bitcoin (LTHs) are sending fewer and fewer coins to exchanges. Despite short-term spikes in selling activity, the annual average of exchange inflows has been declining for some time. Analyst Darkfost shares a striking chart showing that this average is now at its lowest level since 2015.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

What does the data say about LTH behaviour?

Darkfost’s analysis focuses on two aspects of LTH behaviour, that is, Bitcoin holders who hold their coins for longer than six months. First, there are episodes of extreme selling activity, where daily inflows to exchanges are at least five times higher than the annual average. Second, there is the annual average itself, which provides insight into the long-term behaviour of this group of investors.

In the short term, LTHs remain relatively active. Inflows to exchanges are still above normal levels, and when LTHs send Bitcoin to an exchange, those coins are in most cases actually sold. Yet the bigger picture tells a different story: the annual average of inflows has been declining for some time and is now at the lowest level ever recorded since 2015.

Institutional inflows change the playing field

The average has recently risen slightly, from about 630 Bitcoin per day at the beginning of May to over 800 Bitcoin per day now. Yet historically this is still an extremely low level. Darkfost suggests that this may indicate that LTHs are increasingly inclined to hold their Bitcoin rather than sell, resulting in lower and more even exchange inflows over time.

Another explanation is that the composition of this group of investors is changing. With the arrival of ETFs and institutional players, the LTH category may now consist of a different type of investor than before. This shift could explain why selling pressure becomes less dominant in the longer term, even though sudden spikes in selling activity are still possible. Earlier this week, other on-chain data also indicated that the Bitcoin bear market may not be over yet. The Bitcoin price is currently at $64K, an increase of 0.3% in the last 24 hours.