More than half of Bitcoin supply still at a loss

Only 52% of all Bitcoin is currently held at a profit. This means that almost half of all outstanding BTC is currently at a loss. Onchain analyst Darkfost argues that the market is in the final phase of a bear market, regardless of where the ultimate bottom lies.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• 52% of all Bitcoin is currently in profit, meaning almost half is at a loss
• In June and July, this percentage briefly dipped below 50%, a historically significant turning point during bear markets
• According to analyst Darkfost, the market is now in the final phase of the bear market

52% of supply in profit

Based on onchain data from CryptoQuant, the so-called “supply in profit” metric shows that 52% of all Bitcoin is currently held at a purchase price below the current price of $64.700. That sounds positive, but the flip side is that almost half of all BTC was bought at a higher price and is currently underwater.

Analyst Darkfost points out that the 50% threshold is historically a crucial turning point. During every bear market, this level eventually tips downwards, after which more coins are held at a loss than at a profit. This is a pattern that has repeated itself in previous market cycles.

Final phase of the bear market in sight

In June and July, the percentage briefly dipped below 50%, but a sustained break has not materialised so far. Darkfost sees this as a sign that, while the bear market is well advanced, the low point may not definitively be behind us yet.

Nevertheless, he sees reason for cautious optimism. According to him, the current reading of the metric indicates that the market is now in the final stage of the downturn. Where the absolute bottom ultimately lies or what the lowest price will be is less relevant in that regard. The pattern indicates that the worst will be over in due course.