Two Thirds of Polymarket World Cup Traders Lose Money

The World Cup is over and Spain can call themselves world champions. But who actually made money from the prediction market? Figures on the Polymarket World Cup winner market reveal a familiar pattern: the big profits go to a small group, while the majority is left with losses.

Over two-thirds of participants incur losses

Of the more than 194,000 unique wallet addresses active on the Polymarket World Cup market, nearly 130,000 incur a loss. That is approximately 66.7% of all participants. Fortunately, the damage is limited for most: over 114,000 addresses lose less than $100, with an average loss of under $10.

At the other end of the spectrum, the story is harsher. No fewer than 43 addresses each record a loss of more than $100.000. Together they account for a total loss of over $15 million. The middle group, with losses between $10.000 and $100.000, consists of 375 addresses and collectively sees $10.28 million evaporate.

Profit is reserved for a small elite

On the profit side, the distribution is also skewed. Just over a third of the addresses close in profit, but here too, most gain little. Almost 58,000 addresses earn less than $100, an average of about $4.85. The real money is made by a handful of traders.

Exactly 54 addresses each earn more than $100.000, together accounting for over $22 million in profit. Five traders even exceed $1 million. The names that appear are asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear and wco26. They benefit from a combination of better information and strong risk management, according to analyst @defioasis. While major global events like the World Cup attract enormous amounts of liquidity, the real profit ultimately ends up with the smartest and most disciplined players at the table.