Wintermute warns: Bitcoin price could still drop to $50.000

Crypto market maker Wintermute issues a striking warning: the recent recovery of the Bitcoin price from the low $60.000 range does not yet confirm a structural bottom. According to the company, Bitcoin could fall further towards $50.000 and the market remains vulnerable as long as no clear turnaround is visible in ETF and stablecoin inflows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $65.800. a decline of 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

No confirmation of a bottom

In a market update from Wintermute, the company states that the upward movement of Bitcoin is not yet enough to speak of a trend reversal. ETF flows, stablecoin flows and DAT flows all show no clear improvement yet. As long as those indicators do not show a recovery, the situation remains uncertain.

That picture aligns with recent data: Bitcoin ETFs see outflows of $64 million, while demand for Bitcoin is at a record negative level. Wintermute sees this as a sign that institutional and retail interest is not yet returning in a way that supports a sustainable bottom.

Thin summer liquidity makes Bitcoin extra vulnerable

Wintermute also points to the seasonal liquidity issues. In the summer months, trading is generally less active, which means that price movements become stronger and more erratic. In such an environment, Bitcoin can more easily sink to lower levels, without any fundamental reasons being necessary.

The company says that the key indicator is whether ETF and stablecoin inflows return in a sustainable manner. As long as that does not happen, Wintermute is considering a scenario where the Bitcoin price falls back to the $50.000 range. The current price is already moving in a range between $60.000 and $65.000, which illustrates the vulnerability of the market.