August historically bad for Bitcoin price, what now?

August has historically been known as a disappointing month for Bitcoin. Data from Coinglass shows that the chance of a red August is high, while the Bitcoin price is already under pressure around $63.015, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• Historical monthly returns show that August is structurally a weak month for Bitcoin.
• After August, a strong period typically follows, with October and November as outliers.
• Analyst Quinten François advises against using leverage.

August pattern repeats time and again

Coinglass’s monthly returns data shows a clear pattern. In most years, August yields little to nothing for Bitcoin holders, or the month even ends in the red. For example, Bitcoin fell by 8.6% in August 2,024.11,29% in 2023, and even 13.88% in 2022. The average August return across all available years is just +1.12%, with a median of -7.49%.

Only in exceptional years such as 2017 (+65.32%) and 2013 (+30.42%) did August show a positive outlier. For most recent years, August is a month to approach with caution, especially given the current Bitcoin sentiment and declining trading volume.

Traditionally, a recovery follows after August

The good news is that the months following August historically perform much better. October and November consistently stand out as strong months. In 2024, Bitcoin rose by 10.76% in October and by as much as 37.29% in November. In 2023, October recorded a gain of 28.52%. The average October return across all years is +19.92%, and November averages +41.12%.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says that investors can best use August to quietly build positions. He advises enjoying the summer, buying more, and explicitly not using leverage. That strategy aligns with what on-chain data is currently indicating: there is no real capitulation yet, but the market clearly needs rest before the next upward move.