Bitcoin Active Investors Sitting on 20% Loss

Active Bitcoin investors are currently facing an average loss of 20%. This emerges from an analysis of the True Market Mean (TMM) and the AVIV ratio, two indicators that provide insight into the average cost price of actively traded supply. The current Bitcoin price stands at $62.800, while the TMM is around $76.700.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

What the True Market Mean Tells Us

The TMM calculates the average purchase price of active Bitcoin supply. Coins that have not moved for a very long time are not counted. Some of these are presumably lost forever and therefore count as illiquid. This makes the TMM a more accurate picture of what active investors actually paid for their Bitcoin.

At the moment, that threshold stands at around $76.700. Remarkably, this level acts as resistance: in May we already saw that many investors preferred to exit without a loss rather than hold onto their position. This behaviour is reflected in the chart by analyst Darkfost, who combines the TMM with the AVIV ratio.

AVIV Ratio Indicates Significant Devaluation, but No Disaster

The AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) compares Bitcoin’s current market value to the cost price of the active supply. A ratio of 1.0 means break-even, a higher value indicates profit, and a lower value indicates loss. Currently, this ratio stands at approximately 0.8, which translates to an average loss of about 20% for active holders. Previously, the Bitcoin realized P/L ratio also reached a notably low level, reinforcing the broader picture of pressure on the market.

Nevertheless, Darkfost puts the situation into perspective. In previous bear markets, the AVIV ratio fell to 0.5 to 0.6, which corresponds to losses of 40% to 50%. We are not there yet. Moreover, the analyst argues that due to broader adoption in this cycle, Bitcoin may recover earlier than in previous periods. At the same time, he warns against excessive optimism: neither the arrival of institutional investors nor the billions that have flowed in via ETFs have broken Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. Multiple indicators have long suggested that the Bitcoin price is approaching a bottom, but modesty remains appropriate according to Darkfost as long as the cyclicality remains intact.