Bitcoin and markets under pressure from Hormuz deal and hawkish Warsh signal

Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a hawkish turn by Fed Chair Warsh and a new wave of Houthi attacks are putting financial markets under pressure. Bitcoin is slipping slightly to $64.280, while oil prices and bond yields are rising amid growing uncertainty.

In brief:

• Iran and Oman reach a deal that excludes American and Israeli ships from passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fed Chair Warsh signals he would support a rate hike if inflation rises further.
• Houthi attacks in Yemen and Saudi Arabia are the heaviest escalation since the 2022 ceasefire.

Hormuz agreement unsettles shipping

Iran and Oman present a plan for the Strait of Hormuz that bars shipping of American and Israeli origin. Transit traffic will be rerouted through a central corridor, with Iran managing the entrance and joint management at the exit. The shipping sector warns of capacity problems, higher insurance premiums and rising costs.

Iranian media report that attacks are taking place on targets near the strait on Thursday evening. At the same time, the Houthi rebels are carrying out a large-scale attack on Saudi-backed forces in Yemen and in the southwest of Saudi Arabia. This is the most serious escalation in the region since the 2022 ceasefire. President Trump says there is no formal agreement yet, but that the strait is nevertheless “somewhat open”. The US is taking part in the negotiations and progress is described as positive.

Warsh ready to raise rates

On the macro front, comments by Fed Chair Warsh are causing additional unease. Sources indicate that he is willing to support a rate hike if upcoming inflation figures disappoint and the market starts pricing in higher rates. This hawkish stance is driving US Treasury yields higher and adding a new layer of uncertainty to already nervous markets.

Analysts point out that Trump has little political room for further escalation in the Middle East, with the midterm elections on the horizon. That limits Washington’s room for manoeuvre. In the tech sector, strong cloud results and revenue growth from OpenAI are offering some support to sentiment, despite all the macro turmoil.

Bitcoin and crypto respond cautiously

Bitcoin is trading at $64.300, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours. The combination of geopolitical tension, a possibly stricter Fed and rising oil prices due to the situation around Hormuz is creating a cautious mood in the crypto market. Traders are keeping a close eye on the oil price and the rate trajectory as the two main factors for the coming period.

Also on the agenda is the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, where a speech by Warsh could provide a crucial signal about the direction of US rate policy.