Analyst surprised as Bitcoin rises above May high

Analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledges that the recent Bitcoin price has surprised him. Bitcoin broke through its May high this week, while Cowen had expected rising interest rates and bond yields to immediately put pressure on the price. The question now is whether the breakout will hold or ultimately fail, especially now that interest rates are rising again and putting extra pressure on risky assets.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin broke through its May high, which surprised analyst Benjamin Cowen
• Rising rates put pressure on risky assets, but Bitcoin has withstood that so far
• A weekly close above the May high increases confidence in the rally, while a close below opens the door to a rapid reversal

Rising interest rates not yet weighing on Bitcoin

Benjamin Cowen openly admits that he was wrong. He expected rising interest rates and rising bond yields to immediately lead to price pressure on Bitcoin, but that turned out not to be the case. Bitcoin actually broke through its May high, which, by his own account, has made him more modest about his expectations.

Nevertheless, he warns that the situation could reverse. Longer-term interest rates have recently been rising again and are now indeed putting pressure on risky assets. As long as Bitcoin is still able to detach itself from that, there is no problem, but Cowen indicates that this surprises him and that he is monitoring the situation closely. In recent weeks Bitcoin has already risen sharply while other markets lagged behind, which illustrates the remarkable resilience of the price.

Weekly close is decisive

Cowen focuses attention specifically on the weekly close of the Bitcoin candle. A close above the May high would increase confidence in the breakout. However, if the candle closes back within the previous price range, then the breakout was merely a wick and prices could quickly fall again.

He notes that this moment is extra interesting for breakout traders, given the combination of rising interest rates and an upcoming supply shock. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is at $84K, a decline of 2.8% over the past 24 hours. Earlier it already emerged that demand lagged behind when the price recovered, which underlines the vulnerability of the current level. Cowen says he wants to draw less firm conclusions and emphasises that he deliberately keeps the outcome open.