Bitcoin bear market 2025-2026 less severe than that of 2022

The Bitcoin bear market of 2025-2026 has hit investors less hard than the previous downturn. That is the conclusion of analyst Darkfost based on CryptoQuant data. Although Bitcoin’s market capitalisation grew by 742% between 2022 and the recent market peak, realised losses this time remained lower than in the previous cycle. The analyst assumes the bottom of this cycle was set on 1 July 2026.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Realised losses during the current bear market amount to $191 billion, compared with $211 billion in 2022.
• Bitcoin’s market capitalisation rose by 742% relative to the 2021 peak.
• Greater conviction among investors appears to have limited the damage this time.

Less loss despite a larger market

Anyone expecting a larger market to produce larger losses will be disappointed. Realised losses during the current downturn amount to $191 billion. That is less than the $211 billion investors suffered in the 2022 bear market, while the market has grown considerably since then.

Darkfost points out that Bitcoin’s market capitalisation increased by 742% between the 2022 trough and the recent market peak, ultimately reaching more than twice the level of the 2021 high. Logically, one would then expect realised losses to have exploded too, but that is not the case.

Investor conviction plays a role

According to the analyst, the composition of the Bitcoin market is changing. Investors with strong conviction in Bitcoin appear less inclined to sell during a downturn, which reduces the scale of realised losses. This growing conviction contributes to a different market dynamic than in previous cycles.

By comparison, the two earlier bear markets recorded realised losses of $2.5 billion and $55.6 billion respectively. The scale is indeed increasing with each cycle, but it lags behind the growth of the market as a whole. Traders who follow the halving strategy appear to hold their positions more patiently.

Darkfost concludes with the expectation that a next bear market could potentially be even less severe, although that is of course not a certainty.