Bitcoin demand still too weak for sustainable recovery

The Bitcoin market has been showing a worrying pattern for months. According to an analysis by on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, combined demand from both the spot market and the futures market is still far from strong enough to initiate a sustainable upward trend. The Bitcoin price is currently at $65.100, a rise of 1.2% in the past 24 hours, but that conceals a weak underlying demand picture.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Spot and futures do not move in tandem

Analyst Darkfost explains that Bitcoin has been in an unfavourable dynamic since the beginning of this year. Either demand on both the spot and futures sides contracts simultaneously, or speculation via the futures market temporarily pumps up the price while the spot market continues to shrink. The latter is a sign that there is no real, broad interest from buyers.

For a healthy and sustainable rally, spot and futures demand need to grow simultaneously. Those periods are visible in the chart as green zones and correspond to the strongest price increases in the past. Currently, there is no sign of that.

Market stabilises due to seller exhaustion, not new demand

Combined spot and futures demand currently stands at a level of -127,000 BTC. According to the analyst, that is far from sufficient to start a new upward trend. The current price level, which Bitcoin has been consolidating around for months, thus seems more a result of seller exhaustion than of genuine new demand. Previously, $67.000 was already flagged as a possible local top, which fits this picture of a market without clear direction.

According to Darkfost, the situation resembles the previous bear market, where a similar pattern persisted for months before a real turnaround occurred. That the market is stabilising is a first positive signal, but without a panic move with extremely low demand volumes, there is a chance that the correction will simply continue. As long as no broad consensus emerges between spot and futures buyers, the current consolidation level remains one to keep a close eye on. The recent significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs also fits into this weak demand picture.