Bitcoin golden cross reverses after decline to $77.000

Bitcoin’s golden cross has already been undone less than a week after its confirmation. The 50-day moving average fell back below the 200-day line after the Bitcoin price dropped from $79.837 to $77.438. At the same time, expectations for a Fed rate hike have risen to 86% ahead of next week’s meeting, putting additional pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• The Bitcoin golden cross has reversed after the price fell back from $79.837 to $77.438.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike next week now stands at 86%.
• Historically, previous golden crosses ultimately drove Bitcoin up by 45% to 60%.

Golden cross reverses within a week

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day line from below. This is generally seen as a positive technical signal. Bitcoin formed this pattern for the first time since November 2025, but the breakout did not hold.

According to Coin Bureau, the 50-day line soon fell back below the 200-day line after Bitcoin retreated. At the time of writing, the price stands around $77.226. The 50-day average is at $70.644 and the 200-day average at $70.028, meaning both lines are close together.

Fed rate hike weighs on sentiment

The turnaround in the technical picture coincides with growing concerns about US interest rate policy. The probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at next week’s meeting has risen to 86%. Higher rates make risky investments less attractive, increasing pressure on the Bitcoin price. The upcoming CPI figures and other inflation data play an important role in this regard in the run-up to the interest rate decision.

Pressure is also noticeable on the institutional demand side. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows in recent days, which points to reluctance among larger investors.

Historical pattern provides perspective

Coin Bureau points out that a failed first attempt at a golden cross is historically not unusual. When the 50-day and 200-day averages are close together, multiple attempts are often needed before the signal holds.

The three most recent golden crosses that did persist ultimately led to price increases of 50%, 45% and 60% respectively. Whether the current pattern will eventually be confirmed after all depends in part on how the market reacts to the upcoming Fed decision and the macroeconomic conditions.