Bitcoin hits resistance at $78.000: breakout or pullback?

Bitcoin is trading around $78.000 on Sunday 30 August 2026 and is facing strong resistance at the top of the current trading range. Analyst CrypNuevo discusses two scenarios in his weekly update: a further pullback within the existing range, or a breakout to higher levels. He himself leans towards the optimistic scenario, although he acknowledges that the resistance at this level should not be underestimated.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin is trading around $78.000 and is facing strong resistance at the top of the range
• CrypNuevo expects the price to break out, partly on the basis of an uncovered wick on the hourly chart
• The 1W50EMA is an important level: Bitcoin must remain above it to keep the optimistic scenario intact

Bitcoin hits the top of a long-running range

The Bitcoin price has been moving within a wide range for some time, with the top around $80.000 and the bottom around $60.500. After a sharp rise in August, Bitcoin reached the top of that range, but has so far been unable to break through it. Earlier this week it was already apparent that Bitcoin is struggling around $80.000 to make further gains.

According to CrypNuevo, the price behaved over the past week exactly as he had expected the week before: sideways movement while the 4-hour 50 EMA caught up with the price. He also points out that Bitcoin managed to close above the weekly 50 EMA last week, which he considers a first positive signal. The condition is that Bitcoin remains above that level.

Analyst opts for breakout scenario due to uncovered wick

CrypNuevo himself opts for the optimistic scenario. His main argument is a large uncovered wick at the top on the hourly chart, extending to around $81.478. Such wicks often act as a magnet for the price because they indicate a price imbalance that the market typically refills.

On the daily chart, he outlines a possible move in which Bitcoin falls back to the resistance zone around $80.000, which could then act as support, after which a push towards $84.000 to $88.000 becomes possible. That is an expectation, not a certainty.

On the downside, 50% of a downward wick was already filled around $77.400. CrypNuevo does not rule out that the remaining 50% of that wick could still be reached before any breakout takes place. Bitcoin already briefly fell to $77.500 earlier this week, which shows that downward pressure remains present.

Earlier this month, exchange inflow data showed that traders are offering additional Bitcoin around $80.000, which partly explains the resistance at that level. In the coming days it will become clear whether the price makes another attempt to break out above the range or falls back to the middle area around $70.000.