Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Realize Lowest Profit of This Cycle

Long-term Bitcoin holders are seeing their realised profits shrink significantly. With a cost basis of approximately $48.000 and the current Bitcoin price around $64.000. the profit margin for this group is at its lowest point of the current cycle. Realised profit now stands at just 32%, compared to an impressive 350% in December 2024.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

From 350% to 32% in Six Months

The chart from CryptoQuant shows how quickly sentiment among long-term holders can turn. At the end of 2024, these investors were still celebrating record profits, but since then the profit margin has steadily collapsed. Currently, the cost basis for long-term holders is around $48.000. while Bitcoin is trading near $64.164, That technically still represents a positive margin, but it is shrinking fast.

Analyst Darkfost notes that the current situation is similar to previous cycles, where declining profit margins can signal a weakening market. Earlier this week, it also became clear that Bitcoin ETFs are having their worst year ever, with significant outflows in 2026. That fits the broader picture of waning optimism among larger players.

Will Bitcoin Drop Below $50.000?

A key turning point to watch is the $50.000 level. Darkfost states that the end of the last bear market coincided with long-term holders actually starting to realise losses. That scenario would only occur if the Bitcoin price falls below the cost basis of $48.000, A decline towards or below $50.000 is not out of the question, according to the analyst, but it is certainly not a given either.

At the same time, there are analysts who expect a recovery instead. Some point out that the BTC price could rise to a new local high above $67.000. The market is clearly at a crossroads, and the coming weeks will reveal which direction it takes. Long-term holders who hold on to their positions play a crucial role in this: if they start realising losses on a large scale, that could put further downward pressure on the price.