Bitcoin nears $80K with strong spot support ahead of Jackson Hole

Bitcoin is heading towards Jackson Hole at around $80.000, while trading firm QCP Capital says the recent rally rests on a fundamentally stronger basis than earlier ones. According to QCP, the rise from $63.500 to above $80.000 was not driven by speculative leveraged positions, but by spot market buying and the unwinding of short positions. Fed Chair Warsh’s speech takes centre stage as the next price-driving factor.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin rose from $63.500 to above $80.000, supported by around $2.8 billion in inflows into spot ETFs over eight consecutive trading days.
• Futures open interest fell from 646,000 BTC to 588,000 BTC, pointing to less leverage despite the rising price.
• The US Treasury is doubling liquidity support for long-dated government bonds, which initially pushed gold and Bitcoin higher.

Spot inflows drive the rally, not leverage

What makes the current Bitcoin rally stand out is its composition. According to QCP Capital, futures open interest in BTC terms actually fell while the price rose, from around 646,000 BTC in mid-August to roughly 588,000 BTC. Funding rates remained low, meaning the market did not overheat from new speculative long positions.

Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totalled nearly $2.8 billion over eight consecutive trading days. According to QCP, that combination of strong spot buying and declining leverage suggests the price recovery is structurally more solid than a leverage-driven breakout. Bitcoin briefly reached $81.000 and is now trading around $78.000.

In the options market, a catch-up move is visible: preference for call options is rising, the put-call ratio remains below one, and implied volatility rose noticeably ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. That points to greater expectations of further price gains, without extremely concentrated positions emerging.

Macro environment remains decisive

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remains complex. US core inflation, as measured by Core PCE, stood at 3.3% year-on-year in July, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets put the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September at around 35%, with a pause still the most likely outcome. Three members of the Federal Open Market Committee already voted for a hike in July.

On 19 August, the US Treasury announced it would double its buyback operations for long-dated government paper with maturities of ten to thirty years, from a maximum of $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion per operation starting 9 September. That announcement initially pushed long-term yields lower, weakened the dollar, and sent gold and Bitcoin higher. At the same time, the Treasury stresses that the programme is intended to improve liquidity in that market, not to steer yield levels, and that it does not create central bank reserves the way quantitative easing does. Fed Chair Warsh has previously warned of the risks of persistent inflation.

Additional support for risk assets comes from Nvidia, which reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-on-year. Data centre revenue amounted to $89 billion, growth of 117%. For the current quarter, Nvidia expects revenue of around $108 billion, above earlier market estimates. The stock rose roughly 8.7% after the results. Strong AI investment could support risk appetite across financial markets more broadly, which could also benefit Bitcoin.

Resistance in sight around $83.000 to $86.000

QCP points to a zone between $81.000 and $86.000 as an area of potential supply, with $83.300 mentioned as a specific level. According to the trading firm, the question is not whether Bitcoin closes above or below that level, but whether further price action remains supported by spot buying or becomes increasingly dependent on new leveraged positions.

If ETF inflows continue and open interest gradually increases without a sharp rise in funding rates, QCP sees that as a sign of a healthier market structure. Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is being closely followed by markets, not so much for a concrete signal on September, but for the way he describes the balance between inflation and financial conditions.