Bitcoin options prices range from $69K to $89.7K for September

Bitcoin is currently around $79.600 and has recovered strongly from the mid-August low, but the options market is not pricing in a further one-way move to the upside. According to a Glassnode analysis, the middle 70% of implied outcomes for options expiring on 25 September spans a range of $69.000 to $89.700, with the median close to the current price. The recovery is described as a steady process, driven by specific market dynamics.

Bitcoin is available on OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin rose around 26% from the August low, but the options market is not pricing in a further breakout.
• On 19 August 2026, the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019 took place, which fuelled the price rise.
• Glassnode sees heavy resistance between $81.000 and $86.000 due to an accumulation of selling pressure and technical factors.

Record liquidation lit the fire

On 19 August 2026, more short positions were liquidated in a single day than at any time since 2019. Of all liquidations across the entire rally window, 85% were on the short side. Glassnode notes that Hyperliquid is not included in its data collection, meaning the actual total was even higher.

The price rise consumed most of the modelled liquidation clusters in its path, with the available fuel along the route shrinking by 86%. What remains is a dense cluster of short liquidation levels between $82.000 and $86.000 above the current price, and a band of long liquidation fuel left behind between $60.500 and $62.400.

The market avoided excessive leverage build-up in the process. Open interest in futures fell 11% in Bitcoin terms over the rally window, and the funding rate for perpetuals remained almost neutral throughout the entire move. No new long positions were built up after the liquidation wave, which suggests the rise was caused by the flushing out of shorts rather than by speculative buying behaviour.

ETF inflows and broad accumulation funded the recovery

The rise was accompanied by substantial inflows through the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the rally window, $2.23 billion flowed in without a single day of outflows, the strongest seven-day inflow of the year. This aligns with earlier reports on sustained ETF inflows.

At the same time, the accumulation pattern showed a notable shift. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin shed their positions, while the largest category, with more than 100,000 Bitcoin, dominated by custodians and ETF structures, net absorbed 59,100 Bitcoin since the low of 30 June 2026. The so-called Accumulation Trend Score has been at or above the neutral threshold of 0.5 for all six wallet size categories over the past twenty days, the most sustained broad accumulation phase since late 2024.

It is also notable that the recovery took place while equity markets declined. While Bitcoin rose 25% over the rally window, the S&P 500 lost 1.7%. The monthly correlation between the two fell to almost zero. Glassnode points out that such a decoupling in 2025 always returned to a more normal correlation within a few weeks, and that it is too early to draw structural conclusions from this.

Resistance zone from $81K to $86K is the key test

As Glassnode sets out in its weekly on-chain analysis, multiple factors converge in the zone between $81.000 and $86.000. The cost basis layer of long-term holders begins at $80.800, dealer gamma turns negative at $82.300, the remaining short liquidation cluster extends to $86.000, and the supply of patient sellers is concentrated between $83.000 and $86.000. According to Glassnode, a breakout above $83.300 with sustained ETF inflows would confirm that this supply is indeed being absorbed.

On the downside, the cost basis of short-term holders at $70.000 forms the first support layer, followed by the broad floor built up between $62.000 and $65.000 from June to August. Long-term holders had previously sold around $80.000, which further explains the pressure above the current price.

The options market is not pricing in a breakout, either to the upside or the downside. Max pain for the two largest expiry dates of the coming month lies at $69.000 and $70.000 respectively, well below the current price of around $79.600. This suggests that the market expects a consolidation within the described range for the time being.