Bitcoin price approaches crucial decision point around $80.000

Bitcoin is at a major technical turning point. The price is hovering around $79.800, touching the top of a trading channel that has been in place for seven months. Analyst CrypNuevo sees insufficient momentum for a genuine breakout and warns that a fall back to the middle of this channel, around $69.000, cannot be ruled out if a key support zone is lost.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin trades around $79.800, close to the top of a seven-month-old trading range
• Analyst CrypNuevo sees little buying momentum and points to strikingly high selling volume at higher levels
• In his view, a drop below the weekly 50 EMA at $77.000 would open the way to $69.000

Seven-month-old trading range under pressure

Bitcoin has been moving in a wide trading range since early February, with a floor around $60.800 and a ceiling around $80.000. After a sharp rise from the $63.000 zone in late August, the price has again reached the top of that range. The question now is whether there is enough strength to break decisively above it.

Analyst CrypNuevo shares his analysis in a comprehensive series of posts on X. He describes the current moment as the most decisive point on the chart so far.

Little momentum, high volume at the peaks

CrypNuevo saw his bullish scenario partially play out last week: the price first fell to a support zone and then moved above the top of the trading range to fill an open wick on the hourly chart. Nevertheless, he questions the strength of that move.

On lower time frames, it is noticeable that trading volume is highest at the peaks in the price. CrypNuevo interprets this as a possible sign that large players are building up short positions at those levels. That would increase the chance of a pullback within the range, unless a new external catalyst emerges for further price gains.

He also points to the seasonal pattern: September is historically a weak month for Bitcoin. In addition, Monday is a US holiday, which could temporarily further reduce liquidity.

$77.000 is the key threshold for the coming days

CrypNuevo distinguishes two signals to watch. First, he expects the price to fall back within the trading range, a move he considers largely certain. However, that in itself is not yet alarming.

Only if Bitcoin also loses the weekly 50 EMA, which is currently around $77.000, does he see a fall toward the middle of the range around $69.000 as almost certain. He advises investors to avoid high-leverage positions as long as the situation remains unclear.

Bitcoin still received substantial inflows via ETFs in early September: on 3 September, Bitcoin ETFs together attracted $731 million. Whether those inflows are sufficient to hold the current price level remains to be seen in the coming trading days.