Bitcoin price around $64k: analyst sees further decline to $30k

The Bitcoin price is fluctuating around $63.915 and analyst crypto_birb draws historical parallels that leave little room for optimism. According to him, Bitcoin is exactly at the point where it stood in previous cycles, just before a sharp further decline followed. His conclusion: the bear market is not yet over.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Historical comparison points to limited upside

Crypto_birb explains that the current level of $64k is strongly comparable to two earlier moments in the Bitcoin cycle. In 2022, Bitcoin stood at $46k before falling back to $15.500, and in 2018, Bitcoin traded at $13.900 before dropping to $3.200. Both times, a significant downward move followed.

Regarding the month of July, the analyst sees a small recovery as possible. In midterm years, July averages a gain of 10.52%. Because Bitcoin opened July at $58.500, he calculates that the price ends up in a range of $63.400 to $64.600, which exactly matches the current level. Afterwards, however, he expects a painful third quarter: in midterm years, the market declines by an average of 16.68% in August and September. His conclusion, therefore, is that a small bounce will occur, followed by a new decline. Earlier we wrote about how Bitcoin follows a historical pattern in July 2026.

The 200-day SMA says enough

In a follow-up post, the analyst delves deeper into the technical underpinning of his thesis. He points to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the most reliable indicator for the overarching market direction. The SMA is declining steeply, which in his view indicates a bear market that is still in full swing.

Based on this pattern, crypto_birb states that a decline toward $30.000 is statistically the most logical scenario. That is his central thesis until the market proves otherwise. The Bitcoin price currently stands at $63.915, a slight decrease of 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Whether his prediction will come true remains to be seen, but the technical signals and historical data for now support his bearish expectation. Meanwhile, the unrealised profit of Bitcoin holders is already noticeably declining.