Bitcoin price rises to $44.000 by end of 2026, predicts well-known miner

Jiang Zhuoer, one of the best-known Bitcoin miners in China, expects the current bear market for Bitcoin to reach its bottom around October to December 2026. The predicted price range is between $42.000 and $44.000. well below the current level of $61.579, Zhuoer’s analysis is based on a mathematical model that tracks Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and draws inspiration from the natural science movement of a bouncing ball.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

MicroStrategy’s mNAV as a harbinger

Zhuoer points to MicroStrategy’s mNAV ratio, a metric that indicates how expensive the stock is priced relative to its Bitcoin position. This ratio has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 reached in May 2022 during the previous cycle. An mNAV below 1.0 signals market sentiment of despair and oversold conditions.

The miner’s key insight is that a bottom in mNAV does not occur simultaneously with the bottom in the Bitcoin price itself. In 2022, the mNAV hit its low on 11 May when Bitcoin was trading around $31.017, The actual Bitcoin bottom, however, did not take place until 21 November 2022, when Bitcoin fell to $15.476. while the mNAV had by then already climbed to 1.2. This means a lag of six months between the two bottoms.

Mathematical model predicts timing more accurately than price

Zhuoer has developed a mathematical model that models the four-year Bitcoin cycle as a bouncing ball. When a ball bounces on the ground more often, each rebound gets smaller. Similarly, Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes as the total market value grows. The model is more precise in predicting timing than exact prices.

Taking into account this six-month lag between the mNAV bottom and the Bitcoin bottom, Zhuoer predicts that the true bottom of this bear market will occur between October and December 2026. The expected price range is $42.000 to $44.000, Given current Bitcoin news about panic selling and declining positions, Zhuoer states that we are likely now in the very deepest point of the market sentiment cycle.

Trading strategy around the prediction

Zhuoer indicates that he is actively choosing short positions and selling spot Bitcoin in the current market environment. He follows a strategy of selling spot bids and taking short positions until the projected bottom is reached. Once his mathematical model indicates that we have bottomed, he plans to step back in aggressively with spot bid purchases.

This type of analysis underscores the importance of tracking the Bitcoin price and understanding long-term cycles rather than panicking over short-term moves based on daily fluctuations.