Bitcoin 4-year cycle: are we in the final corrective phase

The Bitcoin price is currently at $61.650. about 50% below the peak of approximately $125.000 reached in October 2025. An analyst points to a striking pattern that has already repeated three times: the so-called 4-year cycle, in which Bitcoin rises for 1,064 days and then falls for 364 days. If that pattern holds, the current correction is in its final phase.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

A pattern that repeats three times

The chart shared by analyst @AryaNedaee_ shows how the Bitcoin price consistently follows a fixed rhythm. Each cycle consists of an upward phase of 1,064 days followed by a decline of 364 days. This pattern is now repeating for the third time, almost to the day. The red zones in the chart mark the correction periods, and according to the cycle clock, the current decline began around October 2025.

Counting 364 days from the top, the model points to a recovery sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026. The analyst suggests that the worst is therefore already behind us. However, he immediately qualifies his own analysis: a cycle is a pattern, not a law. Bitcoin ETF inflows have also been negative for four consecutive days recently, indicating that sentiment remains under pressure for now.

Macro, not crypto, drives the price

According to the analyst, the current decline is not a crypto story but a macro story. A strong dollar, diminishing expectations around rate cuts and a general flight from risky assets are pushing the Bitcoin price lower. Institutional players such as ETF providers, companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets and even governments are increasingly determining the price, rather than retail investors and the halving effect.

This also shifts the dynamics of the cycle itself. Each cycle lasts slightly longer and the swings become gradually smaller. The growing institutional interest, such as BlackRock recommending a 1 to 2% Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio, is increasingly anchoring Bitcoin as a serious asset class. The 4-year cycle still holds, but the peaks and troughs are slowly flattening as the ecosystem matures. For those following the Bitcoin price over the long term, dollar cost averaging remains the most prudent strategy according to the analyst.