Bitcoin price: will there be another parabolic cycle?

As each new Bitcoin cycle requires more capital for a smaller percentage price increase, the question arises whether the big bull runs are gone forever. Analyst Ki Young Ju thinks not, but does add an important caveat: the next explosive surge requires a fundamentally different role for Bitcoin in the global financial system.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Capital efficiency declines further each cycle

According to data from CryptoQuant, the ratio between newly injected capital and the final price gain per cycle is declining significantly. In the first cycle from 2011 to 2013, only $2.79 billion in net inflows were needed to achieve a price increase of no less than 55.436%. In the second cycle from 2015 to 2017, it already cost $68.52 billion to reach a return of 10.485%.

The trend continues in the third and fourth cycles. Between 2018 and 2021, $364.9 billion flowed in, good for an increase of 2.002%. The current cycle from 2022 to 2026 shows an inflow of $697.4 billion, while the price gain remains limited to 689%. Bitcoin is currently at $58.628, a decline of 1.4% in the past 24 hours, indicating that the market is now under pressure.

Institutional adoption as key to the next bull run

Ki Young Ju argues that the declining capital efficiency does not yet disqualify the market from a new parabolic move. According to him, the transition from retail-driven ETF trading to a position as a full-fledged macro asset has only just begun. Institutional capital is playing an increasingly important role in this, but the depth of that allocation is still insufficient.

The analyst estimates that Bitcoin must be able to absorb at least $1 trillion in realised market value to enable the next major bull run. For comparison: the current market capitalisation of gold is approximately $27 trillion. Room for growth is therefore present, but requires a structural shift in how large players incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios. Previously, Bitcoin ETF outflows showed that institutional flows are still erratic, demonstrating that this shift is indeed still in its early stages.