Bitcoin realized cap rises by $4.6 billion in one week

The realized cap of Bitcoin is showing its strongest weekly increase since the start of the current bear market. In the space of one week, more than $4.6 billion in new capital flowed in, pointing to increasing demand. Analysts are cautiously optimistic but note that the recovery still needs confirmation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78.200, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• Bitcoin’s weekly realized cap rose by more than $4.6 billion, the strongest increase since the start of the bear market.
• The rise points to fresh capital entering the market, although investor capitulation also plays a role.
• The pattern resembles that of the previous bear market, but the recovery has yet to be confirmed.

What the realized cap reveals about capital flows

The realized cap is a metric that calculates the total value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which they were last traded. A rising realized cap usually means that new money is entering the market, which is seen as a positive signal.

Analyst Darkfost points out that the weekly increase of $4.6 billion is the strongest recovery he has observed since the start of the bear market. However, he adds a caveat: not all inflows are necessarily new buying behaviour. Some may also come from investors who bought at higher levels and are now selling at a loss, causing new transactions to be recorded at a lower price.

Comparison with the previous bear market

Notably, the current pattern in the chart closely resembles the situation during the previous bear market in 2022 and 2023. Back then, a similar phase of sustained decline in the realized cap was followed by a recovery move that ultimately marked the bottom.

Darkfost emphasises that while this is an interesting development in the short term, the 30-day average change in the realized cap stands at only 0.4%. That makes the move relatively modest despite the outliers of the past week. Whether demand is structurally greater than the supply of sellers will become apparent in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, other figures also show that institutional interest in Bitcoin continues. For instance, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed nearly 49,000 BTC over the past 30 days, which also points to sustained demand from the institutional side.