Bitcoin rises above short-term holders' cost basis

Bitcoin is currently trading at $79.600, moving above the cost basis of two groups of short-term holders. Analyst Darkfost points to a notable development in the UTXO data: the cohorts holding Bitcoin bought between one and three months ago, and between three and six months ago, have now been in profit for several weeks. According to him, that could set a positive price dynamic in motion.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• The 1m-3m cohort has a cost basis of $63.424, and the 3m-6m cohort of $73.655.
• Bitcoin has been trading above these levels for weeks, meaning these groups are in profit.
• Analyst Darkfost expects holders in this situation to hold rather than sell.

Short-term holders’ cost basis as an important signal

In on-chain analysis, short-term holders, also known as STHs, are typically broken down by the age of their UTXOs. These are essentially the unspent transaction outputs that indicate when someone last moved their Bitcoin. The cost basis, or realised price, per cohort shows the average price at which that group bought.

Darkfost states that the Bitcoin price now sits above the realised price of both the 1m-3m cohort ($63.424) and the 3m-6m cohort ($73.655). The fact that the price has now remained several weeks above these levels is, in his view, a relevant development.

Holders in profit tend to hold on

When short-term holders are in profit, their behaviour usually changes. Instead of selling to limit losses, they are more inclined to wait for further price increases. This reduces selling pressure on the market, which in turn can support the price.

Darkfost expects this dynamic to develop now that both cohorts are comfortably above their cost basis. Earlier, there was already discussion about whether the spot market can confirm the price above $82.000. The current price of $79.642 remains below that level, but on-chain signals are pointing in a constructive direction for now.

Whether this will actually lead to further upside depends partly on how demand develops. Earlier, traders also analysed historical patterns around the halving as a guide for timing.