Bitcoin STH SOPR not yet in panic zone, but not by much

The Short Term Holder SOPR of Bitcoin is not yet in the critical panic segment, but a further decline could quickly change that. Analysts at CryptoQuant describe the current situation as a fragile recovery phase, where everything depends on whether the SOPR returns above 1.0 or sinks further.

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What the SOPR Tells Us About Current Market Sentiment

The Short Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is an on-chain indicator that shows whether short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. A value above 1.0 means they are selling at a profit on average, while a value below 1.0 points to loss-making sales. Currently, the indicator stands at approximately 0.995, just below the neutral threshold.

According to analyst COINDREAM from CryptoQuant, there is currently a recovery move underway, but it remains fragile. A return to 1.0 could mark the beginning of improving short-term sentiment. However, if the SOPR sinks further towards 0.95, that is considered the so-called panic threshold, the point at which real panic selling occurs.

Previous Panic Phases Show a Recognisable Pattern

The chart from CryptoQuant shows four earlier occasions when the SOPR did enter the panic segment. In August 2024, the indicator dropped to around 0.90, accompanied by strong capitulation. In April 2025, a shorter dip to 0.94-0.95 followed, and in November 2025, the SOPR fell to 0.93 during a sharp price decline with panic selling. More recently, in January and February 2026, renewed panic selling occurred with a SOPR of 0.92-0.93.

What is interesting is that the current value of 0.995 remains clearly above those threshold levels. This indicates that there is no mass capitulation for the time being, although the market remains sensitive to it. For those looking to invest in crypto, this kind of on-chain data is valuable for assessing sentiment. More information about the analysis can be read via CryptoQuant.