Bitcoin under pressure as macro markets move on Iran and AI news

The crypto market is under pressure on Tuesday. Bitcoin is trading at $63.400, a decline of 2.7% in 24 hours, while macroeconomic developments set the tone. The oil price is falling towards $87, geopolitical tensions are easing thanks to US-Iran talks, and the semiconductor market is being shaken up by Chinese self-sufficiency plans. The AI world is also unsettled after the open-source release of Kimi K3.

US-Iran talks weigh on oil price and risk appetite

Donald Trump has confirmed that the US and Iran are in “in-depth negotiations”. The existing ceasefire is holding, which has a direct effect on the commodity market. Brent crude is sliding further towards the $87 level, removing the geopolitical risk premium from the price. Investors are now looking to the meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump, taking place on Tuesday, as the next signal for the direction of the Middle East conflict.

On Wednesday, Microsoft and Meta will report their quarterly earnings. The market will pay particular attention to cloud growth and capital expenditure. On 29 July, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, with policy widely expected to remain unchanged. That combination of geopolitical détente and macroeconomic uncertainty is dampening risk appetite, something that Bitcoin also feels.

China’s self-sufficiency techniques shake up semiconductor sector

Memory chip maker CXMT (ChangXin) is listed in China with a market capitalisation of ¥3.3 trillion. That IPO is reigniting fears that foreign chipmakers will lose their market share in China. On top of that, there are reports that China is working on its own immersion DUV lithography tool, a technology that ASML has so far largely supplied exclusively. ASML’s share price is down 5.8% on the news, as the market reassesses the risks to sector revenues and investments.

This fits into a broader pattern of Chinese technological independence that is putting pressure on valuations of Western semiconductor companies. The revaluation is also affecting the broader tech segment, which has indirect consequences for the risk market as a whole, including crypto.

Open-source AI sharpens policy debate

In the AI world, Moonshot has released its flagship model Kimi K3 for public download. That intensifies competition between US and Chinese AI models. At the same time, the CEO of Anthropic is calling for strict restrictions on open-source AI models and tougher export controls on chips to China. The two movements are directly at odds: more openness versus more regulation.

The policy debate around AI and chip exports adds a new uncertainty variable to the market. Previously, Blockchainstories wrote about the Coinbase CEO’s vision that crypto forms the financial infrastructure for AI agents, showing how closely crypto and AI developments are becoming intertwined. For Bitcoin, all this means that the macro environment currently offers little support for a recovery.