Bitcoin wholecoiner inflow on Binance drops to lowest level ever

Investors who own more than 1 Bitcoin, also known as wholecoiners, are becoming increasingly less active on Binance. The average annual inflow of this group to the exchange is dropping to its lowest level in years, comparable to the situation in 2018. Analyst Darkfost points to a striking pattern that differs from the previous cycle.

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In Short:

• The inflow of wholecoiners on Binance falls from 15,400 BTC in 2021 to 6,000 BTC now, a decline of more than 61%.
• In the current cycle, the inflow keeps falling while the Bitcoin price rises, which was exactly the opposite in 2021.
• The arrival of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 appears to play a clear role in the declining activity on exchanges.

From 15,400 to 6,000 Bitcoin in Five Years

The figures in the CryptoQuant chart are unambiguous. Where the annual inflow of wholecoiners on Binance stood at 15,400 BTC in 2021, it now stands at just 6,000 BTC. That is a decline of more than 61% in five years. Binance is the exchange with the largest Bitcoin reserves in the world, holding more than 654,000 BTC.

Strikingly, the inflow during the bear market after 2021 was three times higher than it is now. This means the current low levels are not a temporary phenomenon, but reflect a structural development. Darkfost states that this is directly linked to the shrinking number of wholecoiners: as fewer investors hold a full Bitcoin, their combined activity on exchanges also declines.

Current Cycle Differs Sharply from 2021

In 2021, the inflow of wholecoiners on Binance rose in tandem with the Bitcoin price. In the current market cycle, that pattern has completely reversed. Despite a rising price, the inflow continues to decline steadily. According to the analyst, this indicates that this group of investors is making less use of centralised exchanges, or simply no longer moves their coins.

Part of that shift may be explained by the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. From that point onwards, a clear acceleration in the decline of the inflow is visible. Investors entering Bitcoin through ETFs do not need to send coins to an exchange themselves, which further reduces the on-chain activity of wholecoiners. That trend also fits the broader picture of Bitcoin increasingly shifting towards long-term holders.

An Increasingly Rare Group

Owning a whole Bitcoin is becoming out of reach for more and more people as the price rises. With the Bitcoin price currently around $63.200, the threshold for becoming a wholecoiner is considerable. Darkfost therefore expects this group to only get smaller in the future.

The lower inflow on Binance is thus a combination of two factors: fewer people who own a full Bitcoin at all, and a shift in how those people hold and trade their coins. Whether this will eventually also affect liquidity on major exchanges remains to be seen. Meanwhile, older Bitcoin holders are showing more activity, which forms an interesting contrast with the declining wholecoiner inflow.