Chance of Clarity Act rises to 32% ahead of crucial Senate vote

The probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in the United States this year has risen from around 22% to 32%, according to forecasting platform Polymarket. The trigger is the publication of a final bill by Senate Republicans, just before a vote scheduled for Tuesday. The bill contains 126 substantive amendments made at the request of Democrats, including stricter ethics rules for elected officials and their partners.

In brief:

• Senate Republicans publish a final bill for the Clarity Act, just before Tuesday’s vote.
• The proposal contains 126 amendments at the request of Democrats, including stricter ethics rules for politicians and their partners.
• Polymarket raises the probability of approval this year from around 22% to 32%.

Largest crypto regulatory vote in years

The Clarity Act, officially known as H.R.3633, is considered one of the most far-reaching crypto regulatory initiatives that the US Senate has put to a vote in years. The bill is intended to provide clarity on how digital assets are classified and regulated in the US.

To secure sufficient support, Republicans included 126 substantive amendments requested by Democrats. A key part of this is stricter ethics rules for incumbent politicians and their partners, a point the opposition had long pressed for.

Polymarket sees recovery after months of falling expectations

Polymarket’s chart shows that the market had become more pessimistic in the run-up to the vote. Earlier this year, around March, the estimate was still above 75%. After that, the probability steadily declined over months towards 20%. The recent publication of the final bill led to a clear rebound.

Earlier, the White House had already warned that the window of opportunity for the Clarity Act is closing quickly if there is no breakthrough. Whether Tuesday’s vote yields sufficient support remains uncertain. At a 32% probability, the market is factoring in both a positive and a negative outcome.