Fidelity: crypto bear market not yet over after August rally

Asset manager Fidelity states that the sharp price rises of Bitcoin, Ethereum and various altcoins in August 2026 offer no guarantee that the bear market is over. According to Fidelity, it remains unclear whether the market is undergoing a sustainable recovery or whether this is a temporary rebound within a broader downward trend.

In brief:

• Fidelity warns that the bear market may not yet be over, despite the strong August rally.
• Some investors are factoring in a bottom in November 2026, based on the four-year Bitcoin cycle.
• Possible catalysts for recovery include regulation, institutional inflows and growing activity on the blockchain.

August was strong, but certainty is lacking

In August, Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other altcoins recorded their largest monthly gains since late 2025. Fidelity, however, is keeping its options open. The asset manager argues that a price rise after a period of low volatility does not automatically herald the end of the bear market.

Fidelity’s analysis cites various factors that could further drive the market, such as higher volatility, increasing institutional inflows, looser monetary policy and growing on-chain activity. Developments surrounding the broader recovery in August are also taken into account.

Four-year cycle points to November 2026

Some investors are looking at November 2026 as a possible bottom. That scenario is based on the theory of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, in which bear markets typically last a certain period after a previous peak. Whether this theory also holds now is uncertain, according to Fidelity.

On the regulatory front, there are still loose ends. The US CLARITY Act, which is intended to provide more clarity on the status of crypto assets, remains before the Senate. At the same time, the public consultation phase for the SEC’s proposed rules on crypto assets is still ongoing. Blockchainstories previously reported on Bitcoin’s difficult price development in the run-up to this recovery. According to Fidelity, the outcome of both regulatory processes could influence the further course of the market.