Grayscale: Bitcoin bear market could last until September or October

Asset manager Grayscale states that the current Bitcoin bear market could last until September or October of this year. This is the case if the traditional four-year cycle holds. At the same time, the company indicates that Bitcoin may have already bottomed out, depending on how the macroeconomy develops. The Bitcoin price is currently at $65K, down 0.3% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Four-year cycle points to further decline

In a new report, Grayscale analyses historical Bitcoin cycles and concludes that previous bear markets declined by an average of around 80% from the market peak. Moreover, the price bottomed out roughly one year after that peak each time. If this pattern repeats, the current correction could last for several more months.

That reasoning aligns with earlier concerns about persistent market pessimism. At the same time, Grayscale acknowledges that the four-year cycle is becoming less reliable as a forecasting model, now that Bitcoin is maturing into a more established investment category.

Macroeconomy increasingly determines direction

Grayscale favours a macroeconomic framework over the classic cycle. The company states that the Bitcoin price is increasingly dependent on economic growth and real interest rates. It references two key factors: the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. If the Fed does not implement further rate hikes and the economy remains resilient, Grayscale believes it is quite possible that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom.

That view contrasts with recent signals of declining institutional demand. Still, Grayscale remains cautiously optimistic about the longer term. The company sees Bitcoin less and less as a speculative cyclical asset and more as a serious macro asset that responds to the same forces as gold or bonds. For investors, this means the traditional strategy of buying after a halving offers less and less certainty.