Russia expects $46 billion in cryptocurrency trading in first year

Russia officially opens the door to regulated crypto trading via licensed exchanges on 1 September. Sberbank deputy chairman Anatoly Popov expects trading volume to reach at least $46.43 billion in the first year, before growing to $87.06 billion in 2029. Only Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether have so far been approved for trading on Russian exchanges.

In brief:

• Russia legalises crypto trading via licensed exchanges as of 1 September
• Sberbank estimates regulated trading volume at up to $46.43 billion in the first year
• Only Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether are allowed on official Russian exchanges

Sberbank: only 20% of current volume will end up on exchanges

Popov based his estimate on figures from the Russian Ministry of Finance. These show that the daily crypto transaction volume in Russia currently stands at around 50 billion roubles, equivalent to roughly 18 trillion roubles per year. According to TASS, SberCIB Investment Research expects that in the first year after legalisation only about 20% of this volume, roughly 3.5 to 4 trillion roubles, will be traded via official exchanges.

Popov explains why the expectation is so cautious: a large share of transactions will simply continue to run through unregistered crypto services. Moreover, although the law takes effect on 1 September, professional market participants have until 1 July 2027 to apply for a licence. The market is therefore far from mature in the first year.

Popov does anticipate gradual growth: volume could rise to 4.75 to 5.25 trillion roubles in 2028 and eventually 7.5 trillion roubles in 2029, as more investors switch to the official system.

Strict limits for retail investors

The regulation sets clear boundaries on what private individuals may invest. Non-qualified investors may buy a maximum of 300,000 roubles, around $3.800, in crypto per year through a single licensed intermediary. To do so, they must first pass a risk test, a requirement imposed by the Russian central bank.

Those classified as qualified investors may invest up to 3 million roubles, approximately $38.000. This too is a restriction that stands in the way of large trading volumes. The Russian central bank has recently slightly relaxed the requirements for qualified investors.

Furthermore, the offering on official exchanges is limited for now. Only Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether have received approval from the Russian central bank. Other coins remain outside official trading. Sberbank, which earlier indicated it wants to accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether as loan collateral, thus plays a central role in Russia’s emerging crypto market. Exchanges can register until 1 July 2027, after which the transition period expires.