Strategy consistently buys at peaks, not at bottoms

Strategy, Michael Saylor’s company known for its aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy, has a timing problem according to a CryptoQuant analysis. Adding up all the company’s purchases since the start of 2025 yields an average purchase price of $90.800 per Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price stood at around $77.100 at the time of the analysis, meaning Strategy is firmly in the red on paper.

In short:

• Strategy has built up an average purchase price of $90.800 per Bitcoin since 2025.
• The price currently stands around $77.100, making the recent purchases loss-making.
• Analyst Darkfost argues that Strategy systematically buys at peaks and sells at bottoms.

Consistently overpaying

The CryptoQuant chart shows that Strategy repeatedly made large purchases over the years at times when the Bitcoin price reached a peak. At bottoms, precisely the moments when entering would have been cheaper, the company was less active or sometimes even sold.

Analyst Darkfost notes that this pattern lies at the core of the criticism Strategy has faced for some time. In his view, the poor timing has directly contributed to the financial difficulties the company has recently been grappling with.

Timing as the Achilles heel

Darkfost calculates that a reverse strategy, in which purchases and sales are swapped, would have resulted in a significantly lower average cost price. The current situation illustrates the risk of a strategy that deploys large amounts without regard for market timing.

Strategy remains committed to its policy of structurally accumulating Bitcoin, but the question of whether that policy is sustainable amid a persistently lower price remains relevant. With an average purchase price of $90.800 and a current market price of $77.100, the gap between cost price and market value remains substantial. Meanwhile, large amounts of capital are flowing back into the market via Bitcoin ETFs, but that has not yet pushed the price enough to improve Strategy’s position.