Bitcoin collides with rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin is trying to build momentum, but it is doing so in a difficult macroeconomic environment. The US ten-year yield is approaching 5%, the conflict with Iran is pushing the oil price above $100 per barrel, and liquidity remains tight. Analyst Darkfost points out that interest rate developments are fundamentally different from the environment in which Bitcoin previously made large gains. That is weighing on the current price action.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• The US ten-year yield is approaching 5%, a level last seen in 2023 and comparable to 2008.
• The conflict with Iran pushes the oil price above $100, which is exacerbating inflation problems.
• The DXY falls below $100 and shows signs of weakness, which could offer some relief for Bitcoin.

Bond yields rise to 2008 levels

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the department is buying back more than $6 billion in government bonds with maturities of ten to twenty years, aimed at tempering rising yields. That announcement disappointed many investors.

The ten-year yield is now approaching 5%, a level comparable to the peak in 2023 and to levels before the financial crisis in 2008. The twenty-year yield has been trading above 5% since July. Darkfost states that the underlying trend in bond yields since 2021 has been upward, a situation that differs sharply from the low-rate environment in which Bitcoin grew up.

Oil price above $100 intensifies inflation concerns

In addition to the interest rate developments, the geopolitical picture is playing an increasingly important role. The conflict with Iran is escalating and pushing the Brent oil price back above $100 per barrel. That fuels concerns about persistent inflation, which further undermines investor confidence. Iran is also active in the crypto world: the country uses digital currency for export payments.

The combination of high interest rates and rising energy prices makes liquidity conditions for risky investments such as Bitcoin more difficult. That partly explains why the Bitcoin price is currently trading around $78.200, a decline of 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin ETFs also show the pressure: earlier this week they saw the first outflow after three days of inflows.

DXY loses ground, but does not yet offer certainty

There is one bright spot in the story. The US dollar index (DXY), which is a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, is falling back below $100. That is notable, because the DXY had actually been on an upward trend since July 2025.

Darkfost indicates that a real break below the 180-day average of $99 could offer some relief. A weaker dollar makes Bitcoin and other assets outside the US more attractive to international investors. Nevertheless, the broader context remains tense. Earlier analysis already pointed to a possibly less severe bear market in 2025 and 2026 compared with 2022, but the current macroeconomic headwind is not making Bitcoin’s recovery path any easier for the time being.