Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Signals That Bear Market Is Not Over Yet

The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator is sending a worrying signal: the bear market is not yet over. That is the conclusion of analyst @gaah_im based on data from CryptoQuant. The Bitcoin price currently stands at $64K, a drop of 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

What Exactly Does the Indicator Say?

The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator measures the momentum of bull and bear cycles based on historical price patterns. The chart, which runs from 2013 to 2026, clearly shows that the indicator currently stands at -11.4. This points to sustained negative momentum, which historically coincides with bear markets.

According to analyst @gaah_im, the current price level does form a historical support zone for Bitcoin. However, that alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. To truly speak of a recovery, the price must show a bullish pattern and the indicator must break above the so-called neutral zone. As long as that does not happen, the picture remains bearish.

Historical Patterns as Reference

The chart shows how similar situations have played out in the past. During previous bear markets, such as in 2014-2015, 2018-2019 and 2022, the indicator showed a similar negative pattern before the market recovered. In each case, a clear shift in momentum was needed before Bitcoin started a new bull run. That pattern is not yet repeating now.

Interesting in this context is that long-term holders are realising the lowest profit of this cycle, which also points to ongoing pressure in the market. In addition, Bitcoin ETFs show a record outflow of $6.35 billion in 30 days, further reinforcing the gloomy sentiment. For those who want to know more about Bitcoin cycles and supercycles, it is worth studying the background of these patterns.