Bitcoin demand weakens as ETFs see $308 million outflow

Demand for Bitcoin is under pressure on several fronts. Analyst Darkfost signals a deteriorating trend in both the spot and futures markets, while crypto ETFs collectively saw $308 million flow out on Thursday. The Coinbase Premium Index is negative, pointing to a cautious stance among institutional investors. Bitcoin is trading around $77.300 on Friday, down 0.9% in 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Spot demand for Bitcoin stands at -145,000 BTC with a persistently negative trend
• Crypto ETFs saw their largest outflow in two months on Thursday: $308 million
• The Coinbase Premium Index stands at -0.036, indicating declining institutional confidence

Spot demand remains negative, futures deteriorate

According to onchain analyst Darkfost, the 30-day spot demand for Bitcoin currently stands at -145,000 BTC, with a steadily negative trend. Futures demand is still positive at +74,500 BTC, but the picture there is deteriorating noticeably too.

The combination of falling spot demand and a weakening futures market makes the current price position vulnerable. Bitcoin has also been under pressure for some time from macroeconomic factors, such as rising bond yields and geopolitical tension.

Institutional investors stay on the sidelines

The Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of the willingness of US and institutional buyers to pay a higher price than on other exchanges, stands at -0.036. A negative value means there is more selling pressure than buying interest on the US side of the market.

Darkfost argues that the current macroeconomic climate gives institutional parties insufficient confidence to take on risk in an asset such as Bitcoin. He expects this sentiment will eventually reverse, but stresses that the trend is clearly negative at the moment. Other onchain indicators are also signalling an exciting phase for the Bitcoin price.

ETFs see largest outflow in two months

The ETF market shows a striking deterioration. On Thursday, $308 million flowed out of crypto ETFs on balance, the largest daily outflow in the past two months. Bitcoin ETFs accounted for the largest share with -$282 million, followed by Ethereum ETFs with -$29.9 million and Solana ETFs with -$500.000.

Only XRP ETFs saw a small inflow of $5 million. Given the large share that ETFs now have in total spot demand for Bitcoin, this outflow weighs heavily. Earlier this week, Bitcoin ETFs already showed a first outflow after a period of inflows, but the scale of Thursday’s move far exceeds that earlier movement. On a quarterly basis, ETF inflows are still in the plus at $4 billion.