Bitcoin must break through this level for a new buying opportunity

Bitcoin is approaching a crucial moment in which a weekly close above roughly $80.350 would give the green light for new purchases. According to analyst Virtual Bacon, this level, based on the 50-week moving average, is the deciding factor between a weak and a strong market.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin needs a weekly close above ~$80.350 to indicate a stronger trend
• The analyst saw last week that Bitcoin fell close to this level, but closed just below it
• A break of the 200-day average around $69.800, on the other hand, would cast doubt on the recovery trend

A year in search of the right moment

Virtual Bacon shared on a livestream two weeks ago that $81.045 was his threshold level. This is precisely the 50-week moving average, calculated from the average weekly closing prices of the past 50 weeks. According to the analyst, he used this level to indicate when a bull market would officially be back.

Last week Bitcoin came close. The price closed around $80.340, only about a hundred dollars below the target level. It was the closest moment of the whole year, but it still did not count. Virtual Bacon works with a strict rule: only a weekly close counts, not a daily close or a change that occurred only intraday.

Why the rule is so strict

This cautious approach stems from an earlier lesson. Last October, Bitcoin briefly touched the $100.000 level, which at the time seemed like a strong position. Yet in the following weeks, the price lost sight of the same 50-week moving average, and the analyst had to reduce his position.

Therefore, the rule is deliberately strict: only an actual weekly close above the level counts as a signal. An intraday touch or a wick that crosses the line does not count. This helps to prevent false signals and counter emotional trading decisions.

Two scenarios for the coming weeks

With Bitcoin currently around $79.400, there are two possible outcomes that matter. If Bitcoin reaches a weekly close above roughly $80.350, that would give the green light for additional purchases. This would indicate that the trend has turned stronger.

The opposite risk is a break of the 200-day average around $69.800. If this level were lost, the entire recovery from last summer would be in question. Virtual Bacon says that he would also openly communicate this scenario.

Despite this cautious stance, Virtual Bacon remains a long-term Bitcoin investor. The discussion is not about whether he wants to own Bitcoin, but only about when he would add more. With Bitcoin approaching a crucial decision point around 80,000, the coming weeks remain crucial for further development.