Bitcoin price around $77.000 ahead of busy Fed week

Bitcoin is trading around $77.000 on Sunday, 13 September, with a slight loss of 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Analyst CrypNuevo sees a tense situation on the daily chart: the price is moving around the top of a months-long price zone, while the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. According to him, that makes this week one of the most decisive in some time.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In brief:

• Bitcoin is trading around $77.000 and is at the top of a broad price range with resistance around $80.000.
• CrypNuevo warns of a possible downward move after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, at which the Fed is expected to raise interest rates.
• For a sustained upward breakout, the analyst sees a confirmed close above $82.000 as a requirement.

Long wick and outstanding target above $78.800

On the four-hour chart, a long candle stands out on Friday with spikes in both directions. The downward wick has now been 50% covered because the price briefly fell back to around $76.500. The upward wick, with a target around $78.795, is still open according to CrypNuevo and is likely to form the first target at the start of the week.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been moving within a broad range for some time. The lower boundary is around $60.400, the midpoint around $69.000 and the upper boundary at about $80.000. After the strong rise at the end of August, the price reached the top of that zone, but a convincing breakout has so far failed to materialise. Long-term holders are reacting cautiously to this development, as previously described in an analysis of the behaviour of long-term holders.

FOMC as a possible catalyst for a downward move

The Fed meets on Wednesday, and market prices indicate an 87.3% chance that interest rates will be raised by 25 basis points to the 375 to 400 basis point range. A rate increase can put pressure on stock markets, and Bitcoin has historically often followed that move, as also shown by previous market reactions to Fed decisions.

CrypNuevo is considering a scenario in which the price first briefly moves up towards $78.795, only to fall sharply afterwards if the Fed actually raises rates. He describes this pattern, a rapid rise followed by a sharp fall back to the range, as a so-called Bart Simpson pattern. He sees indications that market makers are building short positions around the top of the range, which reinforces this scenario.

At Ethereum too, long positions are already being liquidated ahead of the FOMC, which points to broad caution in the crypto market going into the meeting.

Bullish scenario requires a close above $82.000

For an upward scenario, CrypNuevo sets clear conditions. He first wants to see a sweep of the local bottoms around $75.545, so that this liquidity is removed and no longer poses a risk. After that, a convincing close above $82.000 is needed to break through the top of the range.

Without that confirmation, he sees Bitcoin’s current position as vulnerable. The recent pullback to $77.000 also put pressure on the golden cross pattern, and high inflation remains a drag on further price gains, as CoinShares previously indicated. Whether Wednesday’s FOMC meeting acts as a catalyst for a breakout upwards or a further correction will, according to the analyst, be the central question of this week.